2:30 PM | Sunspot region unleashes another solar flare (M-class) early Friday; possible northern lights tonight from X-flare that occurred earlier this week
Discussion
The active sunspot region called AR1748 unleashed an M-class solar flare at 0858 UT on Friday, May 17th. While this is not the strongest flare that we’ve seen from AR1748, it actually may be the most geoeffective as this sunspot is now facing the Earth more directly than before, and the explosion might have hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) towards the Earth.
Another CME that was sent into space earlier this week by an X1-flare from the same sunspot region might deliver a glancing blow to the Earth’s magnetic field later tonight. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of polar geomagnetic storms when the cloud arrives. High-latitude sky watchers should be on alert for northern lights later tonight.
Stay tuned.
7:00 AM | A nice day to close out the work week and the weekend begins nice, but it ends cooler and cloudy with a shower threat
6-Day Forecast
Today
Mostly sunny despite some high clouds, pleasant, highs in the mid 70’s
Tonight
Partly cloudy, mild, lows in the upper 50’s
Saturday
Partly sunny, a bit cooler, low 70’s
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy, mild, low 50’s
Sunday
Mostly cloudy, cool, chance for a few showers, upper 60’s
Monday
Mostly cloudy, cool, showers likely, upper 60's
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy, milder, chance for showers and thunderstorms, mid-to-upper 70’s
Wednesday
Partly sunny, warmer, humid, showers and thunderstorms possible, low 80’s
Discussion
A frontal system has stalled to the south of here and high pressure is now building across New England. That high pressure will create some nice weather to close out the week and begin the weekend, but then clouds will increase by Sunday as the stalled out frontal system to our south begins a slow movement towards the north. The threat for scattered showers will return for Sunday and Monday as cool temperatures take over, but then southwesterly winds will take over by mid-week and this change will usher in a warmer and more humid air mass.
Video
12:25 PM | Active sunspot region has unleashed four X-class solar flares in the past few days; CME could deliver glancing blow to Earth’s upper atmosphere tomorrow
Discussion
The active sunspot region called AR1748 has unleashed four X-class solar flares in the past few days and it might not be finished yet as it continues to grow and has a magnetic field that harbors energy for more X-class solar flares according to NASA scientists. (Other solar flare categories include M-class, which are medium strength and C-class which are small and relatively weak). This particular sunspot region has actually produced more X-flares than every other sunspot of the past year combined.
The last of the four solar flares which occurred early yesterday did produce a coronal mass ejection (CME) that may deliver a glancing blow to Earth’s magnetic field on Friday, May 17th. As a result, northern lights are possible across northern latitudes when the CME reaches the Earth’s upper atmosphere on Friday. The threat for more X-flares continues from AR1748 as it now moves into a location that puts the Earth directly in the line of fire. NOAA forecasters put the odds of another X-flare at 60%. The largest X-class solar flare in this particular solar cycle (#24) was an X6.9 that occurred on August 9th, 2011.
Stay tuned.
Video
7:00 AM | Generally dry and mild to close out the work week
6-Day Forecast
Today
Mostly cloudy this morning and then mostly sunny this afternoon, warmer, highs near 80 degrees
Tonight
Partly cloudy, mild, lows in the mid-to-upper 50’s
Friday
Mostly sunny, pleasant, mid 70’s
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, mild, low 50’s
Saturday
Partly sunny, cooler, low 70’s
Sunday
Mostly cloudy, cool, showers and thunderstorms possible late, upper 60's
Monday
Mostly cloudy, cool, chance for showers, upper 60’s
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy, milder, showers possible, mid 70’s
Discussion
A frontal system passed through the region yesterday and will stall to the south of here today as high pressure builds across New England. As a result, the next couple of days should feature mainly dry milder conditions although showers won't be too far to our south affecting portions of eastern Pennsylvania and central New Jersey. As the stalled out front begins to return to the north over the weekend, clouds will increase and the threat for showers will return to the New York metro region by early next week.
Video
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About Paul Dorian
Paul Dorian, meteorologist with the SI, provides detailed forecasts for employee locations in the Mid-Atlantic region. Learn more...