Vencore Weather
30Oct/14Thu

1:50 PM | *Cold air blasts into the Mid-Atlantic region this weekend as strong storm forms off the coast*

gfs_500_sat_am

Discussion

An unusually strong upper-level disturbance dropping southeastward from south-central Canada over the next couple of days will combine with Arctic air to help spawn a strong storm off the Mid-Atlantic coastline on Saturday. This series of events will generate snow this weekend for some higher elevation locations of the Mid-Atlantic region with significant accumulations possible in mountainous regions like eastern West Virginia, western Virginia, and western North Carolina. In addition, cold air will flood the I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC on Saturday night and Sunday riding in on increasingly strong winds as the storm intensifies off the coastline and ultimately begins a turn towards the northeast. The storm will probably be too far off the coast to produce heavy precipitation in the immediate I-95 corridor, but rain showers can occur at any time from late Friday night into early Saturday night and it is not out of the question that snowflakes mix in at times; especially, in higher elevation locations to the north and west Philly and DC.

Winds will be sustained at 20 to 30 mph up and down the east coast from Saturday night through Sunday with gusts to 40 mph possible at times. Coastal areas are likely to get buffeted by wind gusts over 50 mph on Saturday night and Sunday. Temperatures will likely flirt with the freezing mark on two occasions this weekend in the I-95 corridor: late Saturday night/early Sunday and – perhaps even more likely - late Sunday night/early Monday. Also, since the upper-level disturbance will drop so far to the south over the next couple of days from south-central Canada into the Carolinas (see GFS 500 millibar forecast map for Saturday morning), the cold air will plunge way down into the Southeast US and records could be broken this weekend from the Carolinas-to-Florida. There will be a gradual warm up in the Mid-Atlantic region during the first half of next week.

One final note...the weather looks dry and cool for Halloween trick-or-treating early tomorrow night as any rain showers in the area will likely hold off until later at night.

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30Oct/14Thu

7:00 AM | Dry, cool weather through tomorrow evening; windy and chilly this weekend as a strong storm forms off the coast

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly sunny, noticeably cooler than yesterday, highs in the upper 50’s

Tonight

Partly cloudy, chilly, lows by morning near 40 degrees

Friday

Partly sunny, cool, mid-to-upper 50’s

Friday Night

Becoming cloudy, chilly, rain showers possible late, low 40's

Saturday

Cloudy, becoming windy and unseasonably chilly, rain showers possible at times, near 50

Sunday

Mostly sunny, windy, unseasonably cold, mid-to-upper 40’s

Monday

Mostly sunny, still quite chilly, but a bit milder than Sunday, mid 50’s

Tuesday

Partly sunny, cool, near 60

Discussion

A cool front passed through the region yesterday and ushered in noticeably cooler air for today and tomorrow and an even colder air mass will arrive over the weekend. Following two dry and cool days to close out the work week, deep upper-level trof will set up early this weekend in the Northeast US and the result will be the development of a strong storm off the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Winds will increase later Saturday, temperatures will hold at below normal levels, and there will be some rain shower activity, but the steadiest, heaviest precipitation is likely to stay to our south and east as the storm intensifies off the coast. Cold pours into the I-95 corridor Saturday night once the off-shore low pressure system pulls to the northeast and temperatures on Sunday will hold in the 40's along with a stiff wind. A gradual warm up will take place in the Northeast US during the first half of next week.

Video

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29Oct/14Wed

7:00 AM | *A major cold shot arrives for the weekend; rain and even snow a threat for the Mid-Atlantic region*

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly cloudy, not as warm as yesterday, a couple of showers are likely during the afternoon, highs in the mid 60’s

Tonight

Clouds early then becoming partly cloudy, turning cooler late, lows by morning in the low-to-mid 40’s

Thursday

Mostly sunny, cooler, upper 50's

Thursday Night

Partly cloudy, chilly, near 40 degrees

Friday

Partly sunny, cool, mid-to-upper 50’s

Saturday

Considerable clouds, windy and unseasonably cold, rain showers possible that could even mix with snowflakes at times, mid-to-upper 40’s

Sunday

Mostly sunny, breezy, still unseasonably cold, mid-to-upper 40’s

Monday

Mostly sunny, not as chilly, low-to-mid 50’s

Discussion

A cool front is passing through the region today and there can be a couple of afternoon showers associated with it and it’ll turn out a bit cooler than yesterday. Temperatures tomorrow and Friday behind the frontal system will be even cooler with the 50's likely for highs on both days. By Saturday, a deep upper-level trough of low pressure will set up in the northeastern US and the result will be a major shot of cold air into the Mid-Atlantic region along with increasingly strong winds. Low pressure will develop quickly near the coastline on Saturday and this system will produce some precipitation that should be mainly in the form of rain; however, there is the real threat that the rain mixes with or changes to snow in nearby higher elevation locations to the northwest and perhaps even into the big cities along I-95. Warmer weather does return to the region next week following the abnormally cold weekend.

Video

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28Oct/14Tue

7:00 AM | A surge in temperatures today, but a major cold shot arrives in time for the weekend and snow is a threat in the nearby higher elevation locations and maybe even into the big cities; Antares rocket launch postponed until early tonight

6-Day Forecast

Today

Partly sunny, warmer, highs near 80 degrees

Tonight

Increasing clouds, mild, chance for a shower or two, lows not far from 60 degrees

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy, not as warm, a couple of showers likely, mid-to-upper 60’s

Wednesday Night

Mostly cloudy, turning cooler, mid 40’s

Thursday

Mostly sunny, cool, near 60

Friday

Partly sunny, cooler, mid-to-upper 50’s

Saturday

Considerable clouds, windy, unseasonably cold, rain and/or snow showers possible, mid 40’s

Sunday

Mostly sunny, still unseasonably cold, upper 40’s

Discussion

There will be a surge in temperatures today ahead of an approaching cold front with highs well up in the 70’s up and down the I-95 corridor from DC-to-NYC. This warm up will be short-lived; however, as a cold frontal passage will begin a downward trend in temperatures for the second half of the week. A major cold shot will arrive on Saturday as deep upper-level troughing develops in the eastern US and this will lead to the formation of a storm near the Mid-Atlantic coastline. As a result, winds will howl on Saturday, high temperatures will be confined to way below normal levels in the 40's, and some precipitation is likely which can be in the form of snow in higher elevation locations just to the northwest of Route I-95 and perhaps even into the big cities from DC-to-NYC.

One other note, last night's Antares rocket launch at NASA/Wallops Island, VA was scrubbed due to a boat in the launch site area. The rescheduled time for the launch is 6:22PM early tonight. While clouds were not an issue last night in terms of viewing conditions around here, they will be a bit more of a concern early tonight. For more information on this go to http://vencoreweather.com/2014/10/27/930-am-rare-dual-space-event-early-tonight-1st-nighttime-launch-of-an-antares-rocket-at-645-pm-and-at-nearly-the-same-time-transit-of-the-international-space-station-both-should-be-visible-t/.

Video

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