Vencore Weather
22Apr/15Wed

7:00 AM | *Strong “pattern-changing” cold front arrives this afternoon with showers and possible strong-to-severe thunderstorms…30′s again likely for lows in suburban locations for the rest of the week…below-normal temperatures expected to hold for the remainder of April*

6-Day DC Forecast

Today

Partly sunny skies today and increasingly windy, showers arrive for the afternoon and there can be a strong-to-severe thunderstorm containing wind gusts to 60 mph, small hail and brief downpours, highs in the mid-to-upper 60’s
(normal high is now 68 degrees at DCA)

Tonight

An early evening shower possible then gradual clearing and turning noticeably colder, lows by morning in the upper 30's

Thursday

Partly sunny, windy, chilly, upper 50’s

Thursday Night

Partly cloudy, cold, mid 30’s

Friday

Partly sunny, breezy, chilly, mid-to-upper 50’s

Saturday

Becoming mostly cloudy, chilly, showers possible late in the day and at night, near 60 degrees

Sunday

Partly sunny, cool, low-to-mid 60's

Monday

Mainly sunny, cool, mid 60’s

Discussion

A "pattern-changing" strong cold frontal system will arrive later today in the I-95 corridor with showers and perhaps a few strong-to-severe thunderstorms containing wind gusts to 60 mph, small hail and brief downpours. The most likely timetable for this band of showers and thunderstorms to cross the DC metro region is between about noon and 5PM. Following the frontal passage, colder air will pour into the eastern states with the 30's again likely for overnight lows in suburban locations and the colder-than-normal conditions are going to hold here for the remainder of the week. In fact, once this below-normal temperature pattern sets up in the eastern states, it is likely to hold on right through the rest of the month of April.

Video

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21Apr/15Tue

7:00 AM | Colder pattern begins with cold frontal passage on Wednesday…below-normal temperatures on Thursday, Friday and beyond

6-Day DC Forecast

Today

Mainly sunny, seasonably mild, quite breezy, highs in the upper 60’s

Tonight

Partly cloudy, quite cool late, lows in the mid 40’s

Wednesday

Partly sunny, quite breezy, a bit cooler, showers likely in the afternoon along with a possible gusty thunderstorm, mid 60’s

Wednesday Night

Mainly cloudy, chance for a shower or thunderstorm early, colder late, near 40 degrees

Thursday

Mainly sunny, breezy, chilly, upper 50’s

Friday

Mainly sunny, chilly, mid-to-upper 50’s

Saturday

Partly sunny, chilly, maybe a shower, upper 50’s

Sunday

Mainly sunny, still on the cool side, near 60 degrees

Discussion

The overall weather pattern is undergoing a transition to colder-than-normal for the eastern two-thirds of the nation and the next cold frontal passage late on Wednesday will set the stage for the change in the I-95 corridor. Temperatures today should climb to seasonably mild levels with increasing amounts of sunshine, but below-normal readings are coming our way for Thursday, Friday, Saturday and beyond. A strong cold front will arrive in the region late tomorrow with PM showers and possible gusty thunderstorms and this system will usher in colder air for the second half of the week.

Video

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20Apr/15Mon

12:15 PM | *Threat exists in DC, Philly for severe thunderstorm activity late today/tonight*

vis0
[GOES visible satellite image around noon; courtesy Penn State eWall, NOAA]

Discussion

A warm front pushed through the region this morning and sunshine has broken out across the DC metro region and is likely to appear in southeastern Pennsylvania during the afternoon. As a result, temperatures will jump to quite warm levels and this will help to destabilize the lower atmosphere ahead of the arrival of a strong cold frontal system which is now centered over the eastern Ohio Valley. The current visible satellite image shows the clearing skies across the DC metro region as of noon (circled area) and that area is expanding to the north and east. Any severe thunderstorm late today or tonight in the DC, Philly metro regions could generate damaging wind gusts, hail and possible isolated tornadoes. The latest high-resolution NAM computer forecast simulated radar map (below) for 11PM features a relatively solid line of thunderstorms near DC and just to its east as well as one line approaching southeastern Pennsylvania. The most likely time frame for any severe thunderstorm activity in the DC and Philly metro regions is between 6pm and midnight. The New York City metro region is likely to escape from any potential severe thunderstorm activity due to stubborn low cloud cover and cooler air at surface level in that area.

nam_late_evening
[12Z NAM simulated radar map for 11PM; map courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, NOAA]

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20Apr/15Mon

7:00 AM | Fresh batch of showers and possible strong thunderstorms for the late day/early evening hours…colder pattern begins by mid-week

6-Day DC Forecast

Today

A mix of clouds and sun from mid-morning through early afternoon with nothing more than a lingering shower or two, showers are likely to return late this afternoon with possible strong thunderstorms, warm, highs in the mid-to-upper 70’s

Tonight

Showers and possible strong thunderstorms during the early evening hours, mild, lows in the lower 50's

Tuesday

Partly sunny, breezy, seasonably mild, upper 60’s

Tuesday Night

Partly cloudy, turning colder, low-to-mid 40’s

Wednesday

Partly sunny, a bit cooler, a few showers possible ,maybe a thunderstorm, near 65 degrees

Thursday

Partly sunny, chilly, upper 50’s

Friday

Mainly sunny, chilly, upper 50’s

Saturday

Mainly sunny, chilly, upper 50’s

Discussion

The overall weather pattern is undergoing a significant transition this week which will likely produce colder-than-normal weather conditions in the eastern two-thirds of the nation from around mid-week to the end of the month. Today’s rain event in the Mid-Atlantic region is a two-parter with the steady, soaking overnight rains associated with a warm front now over with in the DC metro region. After a break during the mid-day and early afternoon hours, a fresh batch of showers and possible strong thunderstorms will arrive for late afternoon and early evening hours (4-8pm) associated with a cold frontal system. A secondary cold front could spark some shower activity on Wednesday and then the rest of the week (and perhaps the rest of the month of April) will be colder-than-normal.

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