[Latest satellite image of the developing coastal storm; courtesy NOAA, NASA, Capital Weather Gang]
The latest satellite image shows an extensive area of clouds associated with the developing nor’easter from near Cuba to the Mid-Atlantic region (above). The developing coastal storm is tapping into moisture from all the way down to near Cuba and this moisture feed is surging northward thanks to a strong southerly flow of air in the lowest parts of the atmosphere along the southeastern coastline (map below).
[850 millibar moisture transport; courtesy NOAA]
Significant rain has now reached as far north as the southern part of the Delmarva Peninsula (below) and it should reach the DC metro region by the end of the afternoon, into Philly early tonight, and then to the New York City metro region later tonight. The rain and wind will intensify overnight in the I-95 corridor and continue into Thursday and there is the potential for 1-2 inches with locally heavier amounts. The storm’s most important impacts will occur along coastal sections of New Jersey and the Delmarva Peninsula where heavy rain and gale force winds are likely (gusts to 40 mph or so). The storm winds down late tomorrow and there will be much improvement by Friday afternoon with noticeably warmer conditions compared to the expected unseasonably cool day on Thursday.
[Latest NEXRAD radar image; courtesy University of Wisconsin]
Lowering and thickening clouds with showers possible by the end of the afternoon, cool, highs in the low 70’s
Cloudy with periods of rain, heavy at times, increasing winds, cool, lows in the upper 50’s
Cloudy, chilly and breezy with periods of rain, heavy at times early in the day, near 70
Mostly cloudy, breezy, cool, low-to-mid 50’s
Mostly sunny, warmer, patchy fog possible late at night, mid-to-upper 70’s
Patchy fog possible early; otherwise, partly-to-mostly sunny skies, comfortably warm, near 80
Patchy fog possible early; otherwise, partly-to-mostly sunny skies, pleasant, upper 70’s
Partly sunny, comfortable, upper 70’s
Low pressure forming along the east coast will generate a chilly, soaking rain event around here beginning late today and continuing into Thursday. This developing coastal storm could produce one to as much as three inches of rain from the I-95 corridor between DC and New York City and points east to the coastline before pulling away from the region on Friday. Mid-Atlantic coastal sections will be most affected by this nor'easter tonight and Thursday with heavy rainfall and gale force winds generally out of the east-to-northeast. The combination of clouds, rain and an ocean flow of air will hold temperatures primarily in the 60’s on Thursday, but then temperatures should rebound nicely Friday afternoon with the return of some sunshine.
Looking ahead, high temperatures will likely flirt with the 80 degree mark on both weekend days, but fog could become an important factor during the late night and early morning hours. The combination of the increasing nighttime hours, high soil moisture content, and high pressure sitting on top of the region is a recipe for some serious fog to form this weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region.
3:00 PM | *All systems are go for a significant nor’easter to impact the I-95 corridor between late Wednesday and early Friday*
Low pressure will consolidate along the east coast on Wednesday and it will ride right up the coastline producing significant rainfall on the order of 1-3 inches in the DC-Boston corridor from late Wednesday into early Friday. The combination of the intensifying low pressure system and departing strong high pressure to the north will generate a stiff ocean wind (gale force at coast) during the storm along with rainy and chilly conditions. Temperatures on Thursday will likely be confined to the 60’s given the combination of clouds, rain and the persistent ocean flow of air. The low pressure system will pull away from the coastline early Friday and temperatures should rebound rather nicely Friday afternoon and then flirt with the 80 degree mark on both weekend days in much of the I-95 corridor.
7:00 AM | *Significant rain event likely late Wednesday night and Thursday as low pressure rides up the coastline*
Mostly sunny, cool, highs in the low 70’s
Mostly clear, cool, lows in the low-to-mid 50’s
Sunshine followed by increasing clouds, cool, low 70’s
Becoming mostly cloudy with rain likely late, cool, mid-to-upper 50’s
Cloudy, windy and chilly with periods of rain likely, near 70
Mostly sunny, warmer, mid 70’s
Mostly sunny, comfortably warm, near 80
Mostly sunny, pleasant, upper 70’s
Temperatures this morning are at some of the coolest levels so far this season in many northern and western suburban locations ranging from the mid-to-upper 40's along with clear skies. High pressure will ensure another cool and dry day around here with plenty of sunshine and that same weather pattern will continue into Wednesday. Low pressure will form along the east coast by tomorrow afternoon, however, and this system will quite likely generate a significant rain event for the I-95 corridor from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC late Wednesday night and Thursday. Once that low pushes away from the coast on Friday, temperatures should rebound quite nicely reaching well up into the 70's on Friday afternoon and then to near 80 degrees on Saturday.