Vencore Weather
29Jan/15Thu

12:00 PM | **Clipper/front impacts the region later today, early tonight…significant snow threat later Sunday into Monday**

ecmwf_apcp_f96_us
[12Z Euro 96-hour forecast for Monday morning; map courtesy WSI]

Discussion

Overview
There are two systems that are likely to spread wintry precipitation into the I-95 corridor over the next few days. The first system will be limited in moisture; however, it still can produce some slippery spots later today and early tonight. The second system will have lots of moisture to work with, lots of cold air in place as it arrives, and it has the potential to produce several inches of snow around here from late Sunday into Monday.

Late today, tonight – the clipper system and its associated cold front
The first system is a clipper type of low pressure that is currently located over the eastern Great Lakes and it will drag a cold front across the region in the overnight hours. This system will not produce much precipitation in the I-95 corridor, but there can be enough for some slippery spots given the cold ground conditions.

In DC, the timing is not good as the precipitation is likely to arrive by 3PM or so and primarily be in the form of sleet although freezing rain and snow can be mixed in. This evening’s commute in the DC metro region is likely to see slippery spots on the roadways associated with this upcoming wintry mix. North of the PA/MD border, precipitation should primarily be in the form of snow; however, even that far north, there can be some sleet mixed in at times. The snow or snow/sleet mix should arrive in Philly by 5pm or so, and then in NYC around 8pm or so. The latter stages of the evening commute in Philly can certainly be affected by the weather, but the NYC rush hour should expire before precipitation arrives up there. Snow accumulations in Philly and NYC can end up in the “coating to an inch or two” range by later tonight.

This clipper system will then intensify rapidly late tonight and it will have a much bigger impact on northern New England. Areas north of the Massachusetts Turnpike (e.g., New Hampshire and Maine) will likely get hit by several inches of accumulating snow and strong winds – something they really don’t need. Winds will get quite strong around here tomorrow and tomorrow night resulting in very low wind chill values and the actual air temperatures could drop into the single digits in some areas late tomorrow night. Saturday stays on the frigid side around here with highs confined to 20’s at best.

Late Sunday into Monday - a significant snow threat for the I-95 corridor
Over the weekend, copious amounts of moisture will head out of the southwestern states and into the central Plains and then right towards the Mid-Atlantic region. Significant snow is likely first in New Mexico (tonight, Friday) and then from Kansas to Illinois on Saturday. By Sunday, this moisture will begin streaming into the Mid-Atlantic region and snow is likely to be the result. Quite cold air will be in place in the Mid-Atlantic with anchoring high pressure systems situated to the north and northwest. This storm has the potential to produce several inches of snow late Sunday into Monday in the entire I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC and also throughout much of the region between I-80 and I-70. It is still a few days away; however, and - as we experienced earlier this week - a slight shift in the pattern can have significant impact on the outcome. No matter what happens with this early week storm, bitter cold air is likely to follow for much of next week.

Video

Filed under: NYC, PHL, WMA Comments Off
29Jan/15Thu

7:00 AM | Clipper low and an Arctic front affect the region later today into tonight…more important system possible later Sunday into Monday

6-Day Forecast

Today

Becoming mainly cloudy, breezy, cold, chance for a wintry mix of sleet and rain late in the day, highs in the mid-to-upper 30’s

Tonight

A light wintry mix of sleet and rain early, cold, lows by morning in the upper 20’s

Friday

Partly sunny, very windy, cold, chance for a few snow showers, low 30’s

Friday Night

Very cold with mostly clear skies, blustery, low-to-mid teens for lows

Saturday

Mostly sunny, breezy, very cold, mid-to-upper 20’s

Sunday

Mostly cloudy, cold, chance for some snow late, possibly mixed with sleet and/or rain, mid 30’s

Monday

Snow or mixed precipitation possible early, windy, cold, temperatures hold in the 20's

Tuesday

Mostly sunny, very cold, mid 20’s

Discussion

A clipper low pressure system with Arctic air behind it will drop southeastward today across the eastern Great Lakes and produce a wintry mix of sleet and rain later today into early Friday and this could cause slippery spots on the roadways. Strong winds on Friday behind the system will usher in a very cold air mass and temperatures should plunge to the lower teens late tomorrow night. After a very cold Saturday, clouds will increase on Sunday as an area of low pressure approaches from the southwest. As a result, snow is possible later Sunday into Monday, possibly mixed with rain or sleet at times, but there is the potential for several inches of snow accumulation. Brutal cold air will affect the region during much of next week.

Video

Filed under: WMA Comments Off
28Jan/15Wed

7:00 AM | Clipper low moves to our north tomorrow night…another system arrives later Sunday/Monday

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly sunny, breezy, cold, highs in the low 30’s

Tonight

Mostly clear, very cold, lows by morning in the upper teens

Thursday

Becoming mainly cloudy, cold, chance for snow and/or rain late, mid 30’s

Thursday Night

Occasional snow and/or rain likely, cold, upper 20’s

Friday

Partly sunny, windy, cold, maybe a snow shower, low 30’s, bitter cold at night with lows not far from 10 degrees

Saturday

Partly sunny, very cold, mid-to-upper 20’s

Sunday

Mostly cloudy, quite cold, chance for snow, sleet, freezing rain or plain rain, mid 30’s

Monday

A wintry mix possible early, windy, cold, low 30's

Discussion

The powerful nor’easter is gone and high pressure will take control today generating plenty of sunshine in the Mid-Atlantic region. A clipper low pressure system will drop southeastward on Thursday through the Great Lakes region and should produce a nuisance event around here on late tomorrow into early Friday with snow and/or rain likely. Very cold air will follow to close out the work week with low temperatures on Friday night likely plunging to near 10 degrees. Another system will threaten the region with snow or a wintry mix late Sunday into Monday and that system will have lots of moisture to work with. Given the very cold air mass in place ahead of it on Friday night and Saturday, this system could become a real mess around here. More brutal cold air will follow the "Super Bowl system" for Monday night and Tuesday of next week.

Some notes about the northeastern blizzard:
-biggest snowstorm ever for Worcester, MA (34.5", records back to 1905)
-biggest January snowstorm ever for Boston, MA (24.6") and 6th biggest ever
-4th biggest snowstorm ever in Portland, ME (23.8")
-3 feet was officially recorded in Hudson, Auburn, Lunenburg (all in Massachusetts)

Filed under: WMA Comments Off
27Jan/15Tue

7:00 AM | *Powerful nor’easter slowly relaxes its grip on the area*

6-Day Forecast

Today

Occasional snow winds down this morning; remaining mostly cloudy, windy, cold, highs in the low-to-mid 30’s

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, very cold, upper teens by morning

Wednesday

Mainly sunny, cold, low 30’s

Wednesday Night

Partly cloudy, very cold, middle teens for lows

Thursday

Becoming cloudy, cold, snow late in the day or at night, mid 30’s

Friday

Becoming partly sunny, breezy, cold, mid 30’s

Saturday

Mostly sunny, quite cold, near 30 degrees

Sunday

Mostly cloudy, quite cold, chance for snow, upper 20’s

Discussion

A powerful nor’easter is still wreaking havoc this morning with much of the Northeast US as it churns off the New England coastline. The worst of its impact now is occurring across Long Island (18" already at Islip) and New England where blizzard warnings remain in effect. Later today, the coastal low pressure system will begin to weaken as it heads towards the Canadian Maritimes. High pressure arrives here on Wednesday and then a clipper low is expected to throw some snow our way by Thursday night.

Video

Filed under: WMA Comments Off