The SI Weather
17May/13Fri

7:00 AM | Will be dry and pleasant today, but the threat for showers and thunderstorms returns this weekend as front hangs around the region

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly sunny, pleasant, highs near 80 degrees

Tonight

Partly cloudy, mild, lows in the mid-to-upper 50’s

Saturday

Mostly cloudy, cooler, chance for showers and thunderstorms, low 70’s

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy, mild, chance for showers and thunderstorms, upper 50’s

Sunday

Mostly cloudy, cool, showers likely, maybe a thunderstorm, near 70

Monday

Mostly cloudy, not quite as cool, showers and thunderstorms possible, mid 70’s

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy, warmer, more humid, chance for showers and thunderstorms, low-to-mid 80’s

Wednesday

Partly sunny, warm, humid, showers and thunderstorms possible, mid 80’s

Discussion

A frontal system has stalled just south of here at the same time high pressure is building into New England. While today should stay on the dry side, the threat for showers and thunderstorms will return on Saturday and continue right into early next week as the frontal system hangs around the region. The clouds will help to create cooler conditions this weekend with high temperatures on both weekend days not far from 70 degrees which is below normal for this time of year. Winds will become southwesterly by Tuesday and this change will usher in a warm and more humid air mass by the middle of next week.

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16May/13Thu

12:25 PM | Active sunspot region has unleashed four X-class solar flares in the past few days; CME could deliver glancing blow to Earth’s upper atmosphere tomorrow

Discussion

The active sunspot region called AR1748 has unleashed four X-class solar flares in the past few days and it might not be finished yet as it continues to grow and has a magnetic field that harbors energy for more X-class solar flares according to NASA scientists. (Other solar flare categories include M-class, which are medium strength and C-class which are small and relatively weak). This particular sunspot region has actually produced more X-flares than every other sunspot of the past year combined.

The last of the four solar flares which occurred early yesterday did produce a coronal mass ejection (CME) that may deliver a glancing blow to Earth’s magnetic field on Friday, May 17th. As a result, northern lights are possible across northern latitudes when the CME reaches the Earth’s upper atmosphere on Friday. The threat for more X-flares continues from AR1748 as it now moves into a location that puts the Earth directly in the line of fire. NOAA forecasters put the odds of another X-flare at 60%. The largest X-class solar flare in this particular solar cycle (#24) was an X6.9 that occurred on August 9th, 2011.

Stay tuned.

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16May/13Thu

7:00 AM | Stalled out frontal system keeps us unsettled with mid-day and afternoon showers likely

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly cloudy, warmer, good chance for showers and possibly a couple of thunderstorms during the mid-day and afternoon hours, highs near 80 degrees

Tonight

Partly cloudy, mild, chance for showers and thunderstorms, lows in the upper 50’s

Friday

Partly sunny, warm, a chance for a shower or thunderstorm, near 80 degrees

Friday Night

Mostly cloudy, mild, chance for showers and thunderstorms, mid 50’s

Saturday

Mostly cloudy, cooler, chance for showers and thunderstorms, low 70’s

Sunday

Mostly cloudy, cool, showers and thunderstorms possible, low 70’s

Monday

Mostly cloudy, cool, chance for showers and thunderstorms, low-to-mid 70’s

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy, warmer, showers possible, maybe a thunderstorm, near 80

Discussion

A frontal system passed through the region yesterday and has stalled out near the area at the same time high pressure builds across New England. This stalled out frontal system will keep things unsettled over the next couple of days with the constant threat for showers and thunderstorms although much of the time will be rain-free. One band of showers is dropping southeast from southern Pennsylvania this morning and it is likely to move across the DC region during the mid-day and afternoon hours. It’ll turn slightly cooler over the weekend as the New England high pressure influences the region and the threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue.

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15May/13Wed

7:00 AM | Much milder for the second half of the week, but the threat exists for scattered showers and thunderstorms

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly cloudy, chance for a couple of showers and maybe an afternoon thunderstorm, warmer, highs near 80 degrees

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, mild, chance for a shower or thunderstorm, lows in the mid 60’s

Thursday

Partly sunny, warm, chance for showers and thunderstorms, low 80’s

Thursday Night

Partly cloudy, mild, chance for a shower and thunderstorm, upper 50’s

Friday

Partly sunny, warm, chance for a shower and thunderstorm, near 80

Saturday

Mostly cloudy, not as warm, chance for showers and thunderstorms, mid 70's

Sunday

Mostly cloudy, mild, showers and thunderstorms possible, mid 70's

Monday

Mostly cloudy, mild, chance for showers and thunderstorms, mid-to-upper 70’s

Discussion

Milder air will push into the region today, but it'll be accompanied by mostly cloudy skies and the threat for a shower or thunderstorm at just about any time. Weak high pressure takes over for the last couple days of the work week, but a shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out either day as temperatures climb to or slightly past the 80 degree mark. A low pressure area will move to the east this weekend and enhance our chances for showers and thunderstorms and bring us slightly cooler conditions.

An update on the sun - there has been a fourth "X-class" solar flare from the very active sunspot region called AR1748 that occurred earlier today. Before the week began, the sun had not unleashed any X-class flares, but now there have been four in just the past few days.

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