Vencore Weather
24Nov/14Mon

12:30 PM | *An update on the accumulating snow for Thanksgiving Eve*

GFS and GFSX
[12Z GFS forecast map for Wednesday afternoon]

Discussion

Overview
The first significant snowfall of the season is on the way for many parts of the Mid-Atlantic region. Low pressure will develop over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday night and intensify as it tracks northeastward along the east coast on Wednesday. The low is expected to pass just east of New Jersey on Wednesday evening before reaching the New England coastal waters late Wednesday night. This coastal storm will have a big impact on the Mid-Atlantic region on Wednesday and Wednesday night resulting in rather typical fashion of generating more snow to the north and west and less snow to the south and east. Odds are against much accumulation of snow at or near the immediate coastline given the fact that the air mass will be only marginally cold for snow and there will be no blocking cold high pressure system to the north of here.

As far as travel is concerned, precipitation from this coastal storm will be an all-day affair in the region from DC-to-NYC, but the earlier in the day one can drive the least likely snow will become a problem. Roads will take awhile to become slippery given the warmth of today and the expected relative warmth of tomorrow. The worst driving conditions should occur from late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening when the sun loses its effectiveness on the roads (yes, it has an effect even on overcast days). Of course, the best advice of all for those planning to travel would be to drive on Tuesday if at all possible.

Details
Precipitation should overspread the region from the southwest early Wednesday morning. Precipitation should be mainly rain during the daylight hours from I-95 to points south and east, and mainly snow well to the northwest (e.g., Hudson River Valley). As colder air gets drawn into the system, the rain-snow line will drop southeastward during the day and the precipitation should change to snow in the immediate I-95 corridor by later Wednesday and continue as snow Wednesday night. The last area to change over to snow will be across Long Island and they can expect the least amount of snow. Northerly winds are forecast to increase to 10 to 20 mph on Wednesday with gusts to 25 or 30 mph possible. The snow will be of the heavy, wet variety.

Preliminary snowfall estimates
3-6 inches of snow in the far northern and western suburbs (e.g. interior northern NJ),
1-3 inches of snow in the NYC metro region and immediate surroundings,
<1 inch across Long Island

Stay tuned, still some time to go before this event.

Filed under: NYC Comments Off
24Nov/14Mon

12:30 | *An update on the accumulating snow for Thanksgiving Eve*

GFS and GFSX
[12Z GFS forecast map for Wednesday afternoon]

Discussion

Overview
The first significant snowfall of the season is on the way for many parts of the Mid-Atlantic region. Low pressure will develop over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday night and intensify as it tracks northeastward along the east coast on Wednesday. The low is expected to pass just east of New Jersey on Wednesday evening before reaching the New England coastal waters late Wednesday night. This coastal storm will have a big impact on the Mid-Atlantic region on Wednesday and Wednesday night resulting in rather typical fashion of generating more snow to the north and west and less snow to the south and east. Odds are against much accumulation of snow at or near the immediate coastline given the fact that the air mass will be only marginally cold for snow and there will be no blocking cold high pressure system to the north of here.

As far as travel is concerned, precipitation from this coastal storm will be an all-day affair in the region from DC-to-NYC, but the earlier in the day one can drive the least likely snow will become a problem. Roads will take awhile to become slippery given the warmth of today and the expected relative warmth of tomorrow. The worst driving conditions should occur from late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening when the sun loses its effectiveness on the roads (yes, it has an effect even on overcast days). Of course, the best advice of all for those planning to travel would be to drive on Tuesday if at all possible.

Details
Precipitation should overspread the region from the southwest late Tuesday night. Precipitation should be mainly rain during the daylight hours from I-95 to points south and east, and mainly snow well to the northwest. As colder air gets drawn into the system, the rain-snow line will drop southeastward during the day and the precipitation should change to snow in the immediate I-95 corridor during the mid-day and afternoon and continue as snow into early Wednesday evening. The last area to change over to snow will be down at the Eastern Shore and they can expect the least amount of snow. Northerly winds are forecast to increase to 10 to 20 mph on Wednesday with gusts to 25 or 30 mph possible. The snow will be of the heavy, wet variety.

Preliminary snowfall estimates
3-6 inches of snow in the far northern and western suburbs (e.g., Frederick, MD, Leesburg, VA, Winchester, VA),
1-3 inches of snow in the District and its immediate suburbs,
<1 inch at the Eastern Shore

Stay tuned, still some time to go before this event.

Filed under: WMA Comments Off
24Nov/14Mon

12:30 PM | *An update on the accumulating snow for Thanksgiving Eve*

GFS and GFSX
[12Z GFS forecast map for Wednesday afternoon]

Discussion

Overview
The first significant snowfall of the season is on the way for many parts of the Mid-Atlantic region. Low pressure will develop over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday night and intensify as it tracks northeastward along the east coast on Wednesday. The low is expected to pass just east of New Jersey on Wednesday evening before reaching the New England coastal waters late Wednesday night. This coastal storm will have a big impact on the interior Mid-Atlantic region on Wednesday and Wednesday night resulting in rather typical fashion of generating more snow to the north and west and less snow to the south and east. Odds are against much accumulation of snow at or near the immediate coastline given the fact that the air mass will be only marginally cold for snow and there will be no blocking cold high pressure system to the north of here.

As far as travel is concerned, precipitation from this coastal storm will be an all-day affair in the region from DC-to-NYC, but the earlier in the day one can drive the least likely snow will become a problem. Roads will take awhile to become slippery given the warmth of today and the expected relative warmth of tomorrow. The worst driving conditions should occur from late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening when the sun loses its effectiveness on the roads (yes, it has an effect even on overcast days). Of course, the best advice of all for those planning to travel would be to drive on Tuesday if at all possible.

Details
Precipitation should overspread the region from the southwest early Wednesday morning. Precipitation should be mainly rain during the daylight hours from I-95 to points south and east, and mainly snow well to the northwest (Berks County, Lehigh Valley, Poconos). As colder air gets drawn into the system, the rain-snow line will drop southeastward during the day and the precipitation should change to snow in the immediate I-95 corridor during the mid-day and aftrnoon hours and continue as snow Wednesday night. The last area to change over to snow will be down at the Jersey Shore and they can expect the least amount of snow. Northerly winds are forecast to increase to 10 to 20 mph on Wednesday with gusts to 25 or 30 mph possible. The snow will be of the heavy, wet variety.

Preliminary snowfall estimates
3-6 inches of snow in the far northern and western suburbs (e.g., northern Chester County, northern Bucks, northern Montgomery Counties),
1-3 inches of snow in the city of Philadelphia and its immediate suburbs (e.g., Delaware County),
<1 inch at the New Jersey coastline

Stay tuned, still some time to go before this event.

Filed under: PHL Comments Off
24Nov/14Mon

7:00 AM | **Possible record-breaker today; rain-to-accumulating snow scenario on Wednesday/Wednesday night with several inches possible in the N and W suburbs**

6-Day Forecast

Today

Becoming partly sunny, breezy and unseasonably warm, maybe a residual shower or two, high temperatures this afternoon not far from 70 degrees

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, breezy, turning cooler late, lows in the low-to-mid 40’s by morning

Tuesday

Mostly sunny, cooler, low-to-mid 50's

Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy, colder, rain, sleet and/or snow possible late, low-to-mid 30’s

Wednesday

Cloudy with mixed precipitation in the morning changing to all from northwest-to-southeast during the afternoon hours and continuing as snow into the evening before winding down, several inches of snow accumulation possible in the N and W suburbs with lesser amounts to the south and east, highs near 40 degrees

Thursday

Partly sunny, cold, maybe a snow shower or two, low 40’s

Friday

Mostly sunny, quite cold, upper 30’s

Saturday

Partly sunny, cold, low 40's

Discussion

Today will turn out to be the warmest day of the week – perhaps even in record-breaking territory - as temperatures peak near the 70 degree mark. A couple of residual showers are possible today, but much of the day will turn out to be rain-free. A cold front will pass through the region overnight and this will begin a downward trend in the temperature pattern. High pressure will follow for tomorrow, but then a strong coastal storm will mess up holiday travel plans on Wednesday. Rain, sleet and or snow is likely to begin late tomorrow night and then, as colder air gets drawn into the system, it'll gradually changeover to snow by Wednesday afternoon from northwest-to-southeast and continue as snow into the evening before winding down. Preliminary snowfall accumulation estimates include the following: up to 6 inches in the N and W suburbs, up to 3 inches in the District, and lesser amounts to the south and east of I-95 with the least snowfall likely at the Eastern Shore. Stay tuned, still 48 hours to go on this one.

Video

Filed under: WMA Comments Off