Vencore Weather
4Mar/15Wed

1:15 PM | ****Significant snow late tonight and Thursday****

GEM_snowfall
[12Z GEM model forecast map of total snowfall accumulations during this upcoming event; courtesy tropicaltidbits.com]

Discussion

Overview
We are now in phase 2 of this 3-day weather event. Phase 1 featured lots of freezing rain and sleet late yesterday with numerous slippery spots during the evening commute in the Philly metro region. Today’s phase 2 brings us noticeably milder conditions with occasional rain and the touch of fog in some areas. Phase 3 will feature colder air moving in from the northwest and moisture moving in from the southwest. The cold and moisture will meet to bring the I-95 corridor significant snow from late tonight through much of the day on Thursday. Six inches of snow is a pretty safe bet as a minimum in most areas along the I-95 corridor with the chance for considerably more than that and all of this follows rain this evening and then a period of sleet later tonight.

Timetable, snowfall estimates
Occasional rain will fall right into the evening hours in DC, Philly and NYC at the same time colder air is filtering in from the northwest to the southeast. The rain will change to a period of sleet during the middle of the night and this should then transition to snow late tonight from the northwest to the southeast. Specifically, the transition to snow should take place between 1 and 4 am in the NYC and Philly metro regions and 3-6 am in the DC metro region. The snow should continue well into the afternoon in all areas and then taper off during the late afternoon or early evening hours. DC’s best snows will likely take place between mid-morning and mid-afternoon whereas Philly and NYC will likely see their best snows from the pre-dawn hours to mid-day. Temperatures will drop through the day on Thursday and bottom out in the single digits in some areas by early Friday morning.

Accumulation estimates are as follows:

6-10 in the DC metro region with the higher amounts in that range likely to the north and west of the District and the lower amounts in the District and nearby points to the south and east

6-10 in the Philly metro region with the higher amounts in that range likely in Philadelphia and nearby areas and the lower amounts well to the north and west of the city; central and south New Jersey also fall into the 6-10 inch range

4-8 inches in the NYC metro region with the higher amounts in that range from the metro region and points south and east and the lesser amounts to the north and west

Stay tuned...small shifts can have a big impact.

Morning Video Discussion

Filed under: NYC, PHL, WMA Comments Off
4Mar/15Wed

6:00 AM | *****Threat continues for the biggest snowfall of the year between late tonight and late tomorrow*****

6-Day DC Forecast

Today

Becoming milder with occasional rain, some patchy fog possible, highs reaching the low-to-mid 40’s

Tonight

Rain early changes to sleet and then to accumulating snow after midnight, turning colder with lows by morning in the upper 20’s

Thursday

Periods of snow with significant accumulations on the order of 6-12 inches before it winds down, quite cold, highs in the upper 20’s early in the day

Thursday Night

Chance for snow early then becoming partly cloudy, brutally cold, upper single digits for lows

Friday

Mostly sunny, very cold, mid 20’s

Saturday

Mostly sunny, still cold, but not as harsh, low 40’s

Sunday

Mostly sunny, cold, mid 40’s

Monday

Mostly sunny, milder, low 50's

Discussion

Today promises to be a milder day with periods of rain and some patchy fog possible; however, the more important story will be the arrival of another Arctic cold frontal system. This front will pass through the region late in the day and this will begin a downward trend in temperatures that could set the stage for a snowstorm in the I-95 corridor later tonight and Thursday. Once the Arctic front reaches the east coast, it will stall out due to the alignment of the upper-level winds which will prevent any significant movement to the southeast. At the same time, copious amounts of moisture will begin heading northeast along the stalled out frontal boundary zone as colder air pushes in from the northwest. The result could very well be the biggest snowfall of the year for the DC metro region with 6-12 inches on the table between late tonight and late Thursday.

Video

Filed under: WMA Comments Off
4Mar/15Wed

6:00 AM | ***Threat continues for one of the bigger snowfalls of the year between late tonight and late Thursday***

6-Day NYC Forecast

Today

Becoming milder with occasional rain, some patchy fog possible, highs reaching the mid-to-upper 30's

Tonight

Rain early changes to sleet and then to accumulating snow after midnight, turning colder with lows by morning in the middle 20’s

Thursday

Periods of snow with significant accumulations on the order of 4-8 inches before it winds down, quite cold, highs in the mid 20’s early in the day

Thursday Night

Chance for snow early then becoming partly cloudy, brutally cold, upper single digits for lows

Friday

Mostly sunny, very cold, low 20’s

Saturday

Mostly sunny, still cold, but not as harsh, upper 30’s

Sunday

Mostly sunny, cold, near 40 degrees

Monday

Mostly sunny, cold, low 40's

Discussion

Today promises to be a milder day with periods of rain and some patchy fog possible; however, the more important story will be the arrival of another Arctic cold frontal system. This front will pass through the region late in the day and this will begin a downward trend in temperatures that could set the stage for a snowstorm in the I-95 corridor later tonight and Thursday. Once the Arctic front reaches the east coast, it will stall out due to the alignment of the upper-level winds which will prevent any significant movement to the southeast. At the same time, copious amounts of moisture will begin heading northeast along the stalled out frontal boundary zone as colder air pushes in from the northwest. The result very well could be one of the bigger snowfalls of the year for NYC metro region with 4-8 inches on the table between late tonight and late Thursday.

Video

Filed under: NYC Comments Off
4Mar/15Wed

6:00 AM | *****Threat continues for biggest snowfall of the year between late tonight and late Thursday*****

6-Day Philly Forecast

Today

Becoming milder with occasional rain, some patchy fog possible, highs reaching the upper 30's

Tonight

Rain early changes to sleet and then to accumulating snow after midnight, turning colder with lows by morning in the low-to-mid 20’s

Thursday

Periods of snow with significant accumulations on the order of 6-12 inches before it winds down, quite cold, highs in the mid 20’s early in the day

Thursday Night

Chance for snow early then becoming partly cloudy, brutally cold, single digits for lows

Friday

Mostly sunny, very cold, mid 20’s

Saturday

Mostly sunny, still cold, but not as harsh, upper 30’s

Sunday

Mostly sunny, cold, near 40 degrees

Monday

Mostly sunny, not as cold, low 40's

Discussion

Today promises to be a milder day with periods of rain and some patchy fog possible; however, the more important story will be the arrival of another Arctic cold frontal system. This front will pass through the region late in the day and this will begin a downward trend in temperatures that could set the stage for a snowstorm in the I-95 corridor later tonight and Thursday. Once the Arctic front reaches the east coast, it will stall out due to the alignment of the upper-level winds which will prevent any significant movement to the southeast. At the same time, copious amounts of moisture will begin heading northeast along the stalled out frontal boundary zone as colder air pushes in from the northwest. The result could very well be the biggest snowfall of the year for the Philly metro region with 6-12 inches on the table between late tonight and late Thursday.

Video

Filed under: PHL Comments Off